Technical Analysis of Reliance Communications stock
Hi All, Here’s the Technical Analysis of Reliance Communications stock.
Where many people i came across who looks for stocks advice will definitely post this as one of the stock in the list asking: Is the story over? Was that one off move?
That’s the reason i indulged myself deep in to it chart movement and made here my introspection on this Stock…
The simple question: Is Reliance Communication stock BUY, Sell or Avoid?
Let us get in to the Chart of Reliance Communications
Reliance Communications stock went through really bad time during Telecom sectoral mess b/w 2008-2012 when it tanked from levels of 800 to 50. During decline: the stock created a well defined resistance around 110-115.
In 2013: the stock made first attempt at meaningful recovery from 50 and by September 2013 – the stock rallied all the way to 165. It was a dramatic move and created enormous buzz from breakout to turnaround. It’s interesting that post Sep 2013, Rcom stock has under performed the market. From Highs of 165 – the stock has pulled back to 120.
The Big Question: Technically – Where is the Support for the stock?
Rule # 1: Breakout Support
The Trading rule says: When a stock makes first breakout move by moving past resistance: the pullback to previous resistance/breakout point must act as support. Based on this rule: Reliance Communications should find buying support near 110-115
Rule # 2: Turnaround Support
The Trading rule says: A long term turnaround happens in the stock when it moves past 200 week moving average. Reliance Communication stock has done that and hence pullback to 200 wma should act as support point. Technically, that level is at 107
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR YOUR EASY UNDERSTANDING?
Reliance Communication stock has convergence of support b/w 107 and 115 on weekly chart and technically, stock should hold this level if stock is genuinely turning around. Reliance communication believers can buy the stock b/w 110-116 with closing stop loss below 105. If stock slips and closes below 105, then one should just give up on the stock.
Happy Trading…!!!
Venkatraman S
Nifty Monthly Returns – A snap shot
An excel Interpretation for your Reference on Nifty Month-on-Month Returns FY 2013
Happy Trading
Venkatraman S
INFLATION : Food inflation a key hurdle
REPO & CRR Unchanged today
My Key drafts with my
interpretation…
WPI inflation in November 2013 rose to 7.52%, more than market expectation of 7% (Bloomberg Survey).
All three components : primary articles, fuel and manufactured goods inflation surged at a more rapid pace than the previous month’s reading September 2013 inflation got revised upwards to 7.05% from 6.46% due to upward revision of all the major indices After onions, now turn of all other veggies.
Food prices increased 1.99% as potato, tomato, brinjal and cabbage became dearer by ~30% each even as onion prices cooled off
Crop disruptions, ongoing wedding and festive season have deterred prices from correcting sharply. ( I merely witnessed the same in my Marriage arrangement on Aug on the food arrangements for our guests…lol.. )
This coupled with lower base have led to 95% YoY appreciation of the vegetable index, thereby accounting for 26% of the headline inflation. ( Could you believe it ? )
Prices of veggies may come off on seasonal factor. However, a sharper decline is needed for food inflation to meaningfully come down.
I strongly beleive now ,when i travelled earlier this month to Northern parts of India the Kharif harvest is likely to be robust and Rabi sowing has got off to a great start.
These are likely to impart a further stabilising effect to overall food articles inflation Elimination of suppressed inflation continues ( Thank god …!!!)
Increase in price of LPG & diesel and lower base effect in other decontrolled fuels led to fuel inflation inching up to 11.74% in November 2013 from 10.3% in October 2013 ( That’s why when ever i refilled my car & Bike i am paying new revised prices each time )
WPI as well as CPI inflation in November 2013 accelerated driven by higher food prices and continues to be above the RBI’s comfort zone. Dr Raghuram Rajan, the RBI Governor, in his talk at Delhi Economics Conclave 2013 held on December 12, 2013, said, “We need to reduce demand somewhat without having serious adverse effects on investment and supply.This is a balancing act, which requires the Reserve Bank to act firmly so that the economy is disinflating, even while allowing the weak economy more time than one would normally allow for it to reach a comfortable level of inflation”.
Earlier this week 90% of Bankers believed in the policy meet ( Today ) , citing inflationary concerns, RBI may announce a 25 bps repo rate hike to tame inflationary expectations.
But Overall Expectations is cracked where today at 11:00 am i just heard from News channels that RBI Governer keep his stance on Unchanged on REPO Rate @ 7.75% and also keeps CRR unchanged with 4%
Now i strongly believe ,Until food inflation cools down till then, RBI may likely continue with its anti-inflationary stance…!!!
Happy Reading
Venkatraman S
ICICI BANK : Charts Rewinded…!!!
I am close to this stock for reasons…
I just rewind charts for last 6-7 yrs of ICICI and putting my analysis for current bias….
You can see ICICI Bank has made many attempts to cross over Rs 1240 in last 6-7 years but the stock has failed on every such attempt. It has turned out to be dead end for the stock.
FYI…. i am precising it here !!!
In market, stuff works as long as it works. Traders/Investors will short/book profit at 1240. Obviously, this all can change if traders decide to build a new road above 1240 – READ BREAKOUT.
If ICICI Bank breaks out above 1240 and sustain – it will mark the beginning of new BULL RUN which can take stock much much higher in weeks and months to come.
WAIT FOR NEW ROAD TO EMERGE I.E. WAIT FOR BREAKOUT ABOVE 1240 and till that happens 1240 is dead end for ICICI BANK investors.
Happy Trading…!!!
Venkatraman S
STRIDES : DIVIDEND Rs 500 …!!!
Strides Arcolab to pay dividend of Rs 500 per share to its share holders :
CMP : Rs 901
Record date : Dec 20th
Dividend payout : Dec 27th
Bangalore based pharma company Strides Arcolab on Tuesday announced a special dividend of Rs 500 a share. The company is looking to return 88% of the free cash it holds to the shareholders. This special dividend to cost us USD 525 million, said by Grp CEO & VC Arun.
Below is the edited transcript of Arun Kumar’s interview CEO&VC
Q: Could you detail with us how much would be the cash outflow for Strides Arcolab post this Rs 500 special dividend and how much would be the remaining cash on books for Strides post this special dividend outflow?
A: Rs 500 per share dividend will cost the company USD 525 million and will effectively make the rest of the company debt free leaving the company with about USD 50 million of long-term debt. We will have USD 75 million of cash after distribution.
Happy Reading
Venkatraman S
Inflation: The Real Culprit…. Its effects on the stock market
In principle, the stock market should do well under conditions of strong economic growth and low inflation.
Ah, and there’s the rub: inflation!
If inflation is a growing problem, investment analysts become suspicious of high economic growth or good market reports. So, what’s Inflation?
In simple terms, Inflation is rise in price of several items over the period of time. Its a financial term.
Example:
Our grandparents were able to do shopping with just Rs.1 per month, in recent times, we need at-least Rs.10000 per month. So this rise in prices year after year is the effect of inflation.
Say, movie tickets were o.50 paisa before, now we pay Rs.100. Inflation reduces the price of money.
Ok, Higher Inflation rates decreases the Purchasing power ….
We had the Inflation data today, the number showed down from expected 7.25 percent to 6.87 percent. Its not a very good news for the market.
Sooriya
How to become an Certified stock broker (NSE) ?
You can become a registered stock broker and start trading with the Major stock exchange NSE in India on behalf of the clients. Stock brokers takes on a variety of roles, but mainly deal with buying and selling of securities for the clients.
This is a High profile which puts you in pressure and act fast conditions on a daily basis. So, what do you need???
- A graduate degree related to financial work
- Interest in financial markets
- Licensing
To make decisions and advice clients you need training, research and experience and to do that professionally , you need to be qualified as a PROFESSIONALLY CERTIFIED NSE BROKER IN EQUITY AND DERIVATIVE SEGMENT.
The steps to take you into a qualified stock market broker is short-term ,but becoming good at it requires experience.
Here you go,
- Get education in related to financial services, as you would be more preferred by both employers and clients for your ease of understanding financial concepts and its implementation, attract new clients with your wide knowledge base and crack through your training sessions easily.
- Get hired by a Brokerage firm which offers you a good career path. The firm has to train you on working with the NSE platform and license is a must before dealing with clients.
- Take the NCFM modules:NCFM offers a comprehensive range of modules covering many different areas in finance :For Equity market – Capital Market (Dealers) Module (CMDM) and Derivatives Market (Dealers) Module (DMDM) are mandatory. You have to secure 50% for passing. Successful candidates will be issued certificate which is valid for 5 years.
- Register here for exams
- Model Test Before appearing for the test, take this model test and evaluate your understandings. You will have the similar pattern. Good Luck!
Real interest in Indian stock market is a must in coping with the market and its environment.
Good with people and numbers… Here you come. Become a stock broker.
Happy Broking,
Sooriya Jayaseelan
Fear and Greed!!!
Fear and Greed !!!
“The methods may change, but the game will always remain the same”
Fear is the emotion that stops us from doing many things, it sees risk and its consequences… It fears. Is it any good?
Well,its difficult. Day trader has been taken over by this EMOTION called FEAR…U lose the trade u lose money..huh..NOooooo!
Fear is a good thing, in my say, but not the so-called toooooo much fear. Understand, You do make profits so do you make losses… 🙂
Surprisingly, there is another good friend of FEAR, he is GREED. You must be wondering, how can they be friends?? I know, they are two extremes and The Trader has both and the one who comes in light is based on our stock market mood.
GREED is an emotion that makes you do what you normally wont do. It plays the super hero in you, making random trades or hang on to positions longer than their trading levels. What happens here, you lose. That’s real bad…
Even here, I would say GREED is a good thing, in right quantity it acts as a motivating factor to the trader.
The right amount of Fear and Greed is always a healthy sign…!
From 100 years ago, as far back as the life and times of the great Legends and history, nothing has changed … fear and greed still rule the markets…!!!!
We will keep rolling and evolving!!!
Happy Reading,
Sooriya Jayaseelan
Markets Tomorrow.. Still with ” Wall of worry ” Syndrome? Read More…
Dear Chartviewer’s,
We had been with eventful weeks which were negative for the market. We began with the RBI policy rates unchanged, fed slowdown on US, SLR cut and on with the European nations.
Despite many headwinds, US and European markets showed weakness for a day and bounced back… This is what we call as ” The start of New Bull Market”.
Technically speaking, Nifty has been showing corrections and may cross the above resistances in the weeks to come. We are expecting Nifty to cross some levels to show further momentum.
Markets were volatile up ways with the RBI policy, corporate results and FII Inflows. We still need boosting factors for market to break its resistance.
We will keep an eye on certain factors
- Some actions by our newly appointed PM, even some small measures like reducing subsidies, improving sentiments will serve as tonic to the markets.
- Nifty crossing 5340 levels to show further improvement.
- Global rally…
- Rupee to show some strength.
Happy Bullstart,
Sooriya Jayaseelan
FII AND FDI
FII FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR
Institutional investors are big organizations which pool large sums of money, and invest them in securities and other investment assets. They act as financial intermediaries in securities market.
So these FII invest in indian securities market and leave great impact on the market and our economy.
This image shows the data of past one year FII Purchase and Sales in our market.
FDI FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Its Investment directly into the production in a country by a company located in another country, either by buying the target in other country or my expanding its business in that country.
Benefits are
- Cheaper wages or resources in the other country
- Special investment privileges like tax exemption
- Trade
- Economic growth
- Diffusion of technology and knowledge
- Employment
- Human Development
- Increased competition
- and much more.,,
What is their main intention???????
Its to make capital gain…..and this is for a investment of shorter duration.
Factors affecting FII are
- Interest rate- If high,its more preferable
- Money supply and Inflation rate- will have to be adequate and stable enough to reap profits
- Exchange rate- Highly volatile is not preferred
- BOP(Balance of Payment)- it should not be deficit.
- Economic growth- fast enough for countries to get benefits.
So, Investment in other country is beneficial and promotes growth and increased efficiency.
Happy Learning,
Sooriya jayaseelan
Sooriya Jayaseelan
Venkat Raman S
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